How to read the Patriots board: moneyline, spread, total and the hold

Every Patriots game on the board is laid out as six tables: both sides of the moneyline, both sides of the point spread, and the over and the under on the total. Each table puts one position side by side at every venue that prices it. Here is how to read the columns, worked through with one real line: DraftKings' prices on Sunday's game against Green Bay at Gillette Stadium, as ESPN listed them at about 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday.

Three ways to price one game

Moneyline. You are picking the winner and nothing else. The minus number belongs to the favorite and says how much you would need to put up to make $100 in profit; the plus number belongs to the underdog and says what $100 earns. DraftKings had New England at -170 and the Packers at +142: $170 on the Patriots to make $100, or $100 on Green Bay to make $142. The same listing shows the game opened much closer, at -125 and +105, so the market has moved firmly toward the Patriots this week.

Spread. The favorite gives points and the underdog gets them. DraftKings had the Patriots -3, up from -1.5 at the open, with -115 on New England and -105 on Green Bay. The Patriots need to win by four or more for their side to cash; the Packers cash by winning or losing by two or fewer. Football has a wrinkle basketball mostly does not: a three-point win lands exactly on the number, and a push returns your stake. Three is the most common winning margin in the NFL, which is why a move from -2.5 to -3, or from -3 to -3.5, gets more attention than its half point suggests. The -115 and -105 are the price of each side; a sportsbook usually hangs spreads near -110, so here laying the three costs more than taking it.

Total. Forget who wins and add up the points. DraftKings had Sunday's total at 44.5, down from 46.5 at the open, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. The over needs 45 combined points; the under needs 44 or fewer. The Patriots' eight games have produced between 23 and 62 points so far: their win at Miami last Sunday finished 24-19, 43 points, and the loss at Chicago on Oct. 22 finished 30-24.

These are examples of how the board reads, not advice on what to do, and prices move.

The per-$100 column

American odds and contract prices don't compare at a glance, so the board turns every quote into one number: the profit a winning $100 position returns.

• Plus odds: the profit is the number. +142 returns $142.
• Minus odds: 100 divided by the odds, times 100. -170 returns $58.82; -115 returns $86.96; -105 returns $95.24.
• A prediction-market contract priced at p (63 cents is 0.63) with a fee rate r: profit = 100 / (p × (1 + r × (1 − p))) − 100.

Take a Patriots contract at 63 cents, roughly the same as -170. With no fee, $100 buys 158.73 contracts and a win returns $58.73 in profit. At Kalshi's 7% fee rate, some of the $100 pays the fee instead of buying contracts, and the profit drops to $54.72. The standard check figure, from the same formula: a 60-cent contract returns $66.67 with no fee and $62.13 at a 7% rate.

Where Novig's fee comes in

Novig's fee depends on when and how you trade, per its fee schedule as of November 2026:

• Pre-game straight trades on the app or website pay no fee, so that 63-cent Patriots contract bought before kickoff returns the full $58.73 per $100.
• Live (in-game) trades that take a resting order pay a taker fee that scales with price: 0.06 × price × (1 − price) per contract, the same rate in every league. At that rate the same 63-cent Patriots contract taken live returns $55.28.
• Makers, the traders whose resting orders get filled, pay nothing.

The board prices games before kickoff, so Novig's rows there carry no fee.

Best price and the gap

Each table is sorted by the per-$100 figure, best at the top, and the leader gets the Best tag. Novig is pinned to the first row so it is always in view, and every row below shows how many dollars it gives up against the leader on the same $100. On the moneyline that comparison is exact. On spreads and totals it holds only when two venues are dealing the same number; if one has the Patriots -3 and another -2.5, the row is flagged, because in the NFL that half point decides whether a three-point win is a push or a win.

The hold

If you read one column, make it this one. Convert both sides of a two-way market to implied probabilities and add them. A fair market totals 100%. Whatever is above that is the venue's cut.

DraftKings' moneyline above implies 62.96% for New England (-170) and 41.32% for Green Bay (+142). That adds to 104.29%, a hold of 4.29%. The spread and the total, each priced at -115 and -105, come to 104.71%, a hold of 4.71% apiece. All of it is built in before kickoff.

A prediction market has no house on the other side, so its two sides usually sum to within a point or so of 100%. A market with the Patriots at 63 cents and the Packers at 38 adds to 101 cents, a hold of about 1%. What remains is just the distance between the best buy and the best sell on the order book.

The board prints each venue's hold beside its row, worked out from that venue's own two prices when the board last refreshed. It says nothing about who will win. It tells you what the venue charges to take part.

How fresh the numbers are

The board refreshes about every ten minutes. NFL lines move most on injury news and in the last hours before kickoff; the Patriots have already ruled out A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson for Sunday and list Hunter Henry as questionable. Use the board to see which venue tends to pay more on which side, then check the live price before you act. Sunday's game page carries the full comparison until kickoff, then becomes the score and, after the final, the recap. The full schedule is on the Patriots page.

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